Predictions for 2024
December 26, 2023
Welcome back to Business Unfiltered with Mercer and Jeff Sauer today's topic is Predictions for 2024
0:00: 2024 predictions for business owners. Jeff and Mercer discuss macroeconomic trends and patterns for 2024, with a focus on navigating through them as business owners.
2:03: The state of the economy in 2023 and 2024. Economic challenges continued into 2023, with layoffs, cutbacks, and decreased consumer spending. Despite pessimism, there is hope for 2024, with potential signs of economic recovery. Mercer predicts a slightly flat to slightly down economy, with consumers continuing to go into debt but still manageable. He believes larger companies are taking steps to prepare for a potential economic downturn.
6:07: Economic recovery and potential avoidance of recession. Jeff believes the economy will turn around in the second half of 2024, potentially avoiding a recession, as businesses are more bullish now and consumers never really led the recession. He thinks it takes a year for something to correct itself, so by the second half of next year, the economy could be back to normal, like pre-2019.
8:09: Macroeconomic impact of rising interest rates on businesses and consumers. Jeff expresses concern about the current expensive money environment, predicting it will negatively impact businesses and consumers if interest rates continue to rise. He believes businesses will invest if interest rates stay low or decrease, but if rates continue to rise, it could lead to a year or six months of waiting for the impact to reach consumers. Mercer believes that people will adjust to higher interest rates as they become more normalized. He predicts a rise in micro and nano businesses due to AI-driven entrepreneurship. They agree that existing companies will prioritize profitability in 2023, with management taking a more active role in decision-making.
13:08: Acclimating to a new economic normal. Jeff discusses the concept of acclimation in business, explaining how it involves adapting to new conditions and making long-term decisions despite short-term challenges. He shares his personal experience of building a company during difficult economic conditions, which has helped him develop resilience and a long-term perspective.
15:49: Business strategies in a post-AI world. Businesses need to think long-term, making strategic moves like chess, not checkers, to adapt to market changes. Expect consolidation in AI and automation, with more features being integrated into existing platforms, and less emphasis on individual companies. Jeff predicts that AI will consolidate roles and companies, leading to pivots and new business models. AI will lower the floor on what tasks are valuable, making some people no longer valuable. He advises agencies to embrace AI as a cost-saving measure and pivot their business models to stay relevant.
21:02: AI trends in 2024, including personal AI, data privacy, and digital marketing automation. Jeff predicts AI will replace low-level writers and intern positions in the industry, leading to cost savings and new business models. Mercer agrees that AI will enable pivoting to more valuable positions and management tasks once it can ingest the right data set. AI will be incorporated into digital marketing platforms for analysis and decision-making. Jeff believes manual effort should be prioritized before automation in digital marketing campaigns.
25:13: AI's impact on workforce and data organization. Jeff predicts AI will reduce the need for a workforce in certain positions by 20% in 2024, with integration between tools being key. Mercer agrees, stating that AI will make things more efficient and replace people through attrition, allowing management to introduce AI solutions seamlessly. Organizing data before using AI will become crucial in 2024.
28:31: AI's impact on jobs and industries in 2024. Jeff expresses concern about job replacement by AI, while Mercer believes trades will see a "bump" and more people will pursue physical work. Both speakers agree that there will be a shift in job roles and industries, but AI will eventually replace some jobs, while others will remain in demand. Predictions for 2024 include a reduced workforce and increased use of AI in businesses.
Topics Covered In This Episode
- Economic Challenges and Recovery: 2023 presented economic challenges with layoffs and reduced spending. Hope for 2024 as signs of economic recovery emerge, albeit with a potentially slightly weaker economy. Large companies are preparing for potential downturns by stockpiling resources.
- Optimism for Economic Turnaround: Jeff is optimistic about a turnaround as the 2023 recession did not materialize. He believes in the possibility of the economy returning to pre-2019 levels.
- Impact of Rising Interest Rates: Jeff shares concerns about rising interest rates negatively affecting businesses and consumers. There is the expectation that businesses may invest if rates stay low or decrease, with potential waiting periods if rates rise. He expresses confidence that people will adapt to higher interest rates over time.
- Adapting to the New Normal: Discussion on business acclimation, emphasizing resilience and long-term decision-making. Jeff shares personal experiences in building a company during challenging economic conditions.
- Business Strategies in an AI-Driven World: Emphasis on long-term thinking and strategic adaptation to changing markets. Predictions include AI-driven consolidation and new business models in AI and automation industries. Recommendations to embrace AI for cost savings and pivot business models accordingly.
- AI's Impact on Workforce and Industries: Predictions of AI replacing lower-level positions, leading to cost savings and efficiency. Integration of AI into digital marketing for analysis and decision-making. Anticipation of AI reducing the need for certain job positions in 2024. They express concern about job displacement by AI and expectations of shifts in job roles and industries.